Reconstruction Begins Today

Polimalinews– Economic and Financial News: Our country is currently in the midst of a fragile ceasefire, with no guarantee of its continuation. From this perspective, we must all remain vigilant and ready for defense. This is an undeniable reality. But the day after the war will also come. If we do not prepare a clear intellectual and principled framework for that day today, we will face two major risks: first, hasty and costly decision-making; second, reconstruction in the old style – which itself was full of unresolved, accumulating, exhausting, and opportunity-wasting crises, both small and large.

The stock market, as a symbol of Iran’s modern economy, has reopened today. We should take this reopening as a good omen and simultaneously commit ourselves to building a progressive and powerful economy in the post-war future.

Economic indicators and the hyper-crisis of inflation show that the pre-war economic situation was by no means favorable: energy imbalance, water crisis, air pollution, widespread rent-seeking, and budget imbalance. From this perspective, reconstruction meaning a return to the previous situation would be a missed opportunity. Every damaged infrastructure and factory must be rebuilt or modernized with new-generation technologies of Industry 5.0 – including artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D printing, digital twinning, and more – with at least a 40% reduction in water and energy consumption (especially reducing carbon emissions).

We know that Iran’s electricity industry is extensive and decentralized, but its main vulnerability was the concentration on large power plants and a fragile national grid heavily dependent on fossil fuel transmission lines. After the war, the country needs a transition to smart decentralization through the development of solar and wind technologies, green hydrogen, self-governing microgrids, and local storage systems. In the oil sector, we face two vulnerabilities: first, aging infrastructure; second, heavy dependence on raw sales. Solutions include retrofitting, gradually shifting the export basket toward as-green-as-possible refined products, and greater investment in hydrogen fuel technology.

Another of our vulnerabilities during the war was the concentration of population, industry, and services in a few central provinces. The same concentration that was the root of imbalance, vulnerability, and statistical distortion of development in the country – and still exists. Post-war reconstruction must proceed based on a comprehensive land-use planning framework, with the feature that each region develops industries appropriate to its natural capacity, water resources, access to transportation, and target markets, while simultaneously the most deprived provinces (Sistan, Kurdistan, Lorestan, Kohgiluyeh, etc.) are prioritized in the distribution of reconstruction opportunities.

On the critical issue of employment, based on existing market indicators, preserving or creating job opportunities must be defined according to real indicators (not manipulated statistics). In each reconstruction plan, investment should be directed toward export-oriented economy and basic domestic needs, taking into account the comparative and absolute advantages of each region, and the number and type of sustainable jobs should be introduced with precision and transparency.

Of course, without educated, motivated human resources equipped with modern technology, no reconstruction or modernization will be successful. Neglecting or underestimating human resources can become one of the greatest obstacles. The current theoretical, memorization-based, teacher-centered, degree-oriented, bureaucrat-producing, and rent-seeking educational system cannot powerfully support the needs of post-war reconstruction and modernization. Therefore, the immediate redesign of an participatory, practical, and just educational system is a necessity for post-war Iran.

Another important issue is government intervention in the economy. Experience has shown that large government projects, in addition to corruption and rent-seeking, are slow, costly, and inflexible. In post-war reconstruction, the government should not play the role of contractor and exclusive distributor. Instead, professional institutions, cooperatives, investment companies, and the private sector should take on the definition and execution of projects.

In today’s world, it is possible for the entire reconstruction supply chain (from equipment procurement to material distribution) to be transparent and traceable by the public using blockchain technology, so that every Iranian can invest small amounts (e.g., 100,000 tomans) in local or national projects – including solar power plants, smart greenhouses, and small or large industrial units – and become a shareholder. Alongside this, eliminating unnecessary permits and bureaucracy and creating a single digital window for all reconstruction processes would suffice.

And finally, the ceasefire is an opportunity for reflection, and the stock market is a symbol of building. What is essential today is establishing a professional discourse on the principles of reconstruction and modernization of dear Iran, overcoming the mega-crises before and after the war, so that when the post-war day arrives, decision-makers do not turn to the failed patterns of the past out of confusion and momentary pressure. The points mentioned above are the unavoidable minimums for building a powerful and progressive Iran. Any reconstruction that ignores these principles will return us to the previous crises./Polimalinews.ir